Tennessee @ Vanderbilt: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Tennessee

6-1 · Power #11

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Vanderbilt

3-4 · Power #60

projected

TENN 64%

36% VAN

Spread

TENN -3

Total

57.5

model 52.5

Spread edge

TENN by 10.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTENN -3

Total57.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTENN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now57.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (233 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTENN -3

Total57.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 3-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 3.7; 53.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT @ NCSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	36–48	L	O58.5
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Very close	TENN @ FLA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	31–11	W	U57.5
Close	FSU @ NCSU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	11–21	L	U58.5
Close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	32–39	L	O54
Close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	ARIZ @ WVU 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	52–31	W	O61.5
Close	BYU @ CIN 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	26–14	W	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LWWLW	4-3	57%	1-1	2-3
VAN WWWLL	3-4	43%	1-4	2-1

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UUUUU	1-6	14%	6-1
VAN OUOOO	5-2	71%	3-4

In 1203 games with totals 53.5–61.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
VAN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee

No more games this season.

Vanderbilt

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TENN 2–1 VAN TENN leads · 3 games since 2023 · VAN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Vanderbilt 45 @ Tennessee 24	TENN -2.5	VAN W
Nov 30 2024	Tennessee 36 @ Vanderbilt 23	TENN -9.5	TENN W
Nov 25 2023	Vanderbilt 24 @ Tennessee 48	TENN -28	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+14.3 →+17.6▲ 3.3#10

VAN+13.0 →+2.0▼ 11.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TENN

Longer bar = better

VAN

#61

Offense

◀ TENN better

#99

#15

Defense

◀ TENN better

#100

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.7 #121

69 plays #38

Pace

◀ TENN faster

64 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #42	29.7 #115	TENN
Yards / play	5.84 #70	5.64 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.14 #98	TENN
Success rate	43% #65	44% #99	TENN

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	VAN off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #101	14.7 #11	TENN
Yards / play	5.51 #97	4.58 #15	TENN
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	−0.14 #4	TENN
Success rate	40% #101	37% #29	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.9 #76	8.1 #84	14.0 #83	10.4 #11	9.0 #29	19.4 #9
VAN allowed	6.9 #112	12.3 #132	19.1 #129	5.0 #72	5.6 #53	10.6 #64

VAN scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.6 #86	4.4 #130	10.0 #116	7.7 #32	5.9 #96	13.6 #65
TENN allowed	2.9 #23	2.9 #10	5.7 #5	3.9 #45	5.1 #45	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.