USC @ UCLA: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at UCLA · Conference game

USC

6-1 · Power #18

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

UCLA

6-0 · Power #16

projected

USC 71%

29% UCLA

Spread

USC -10.5

Total

55.5

model 59.5

Spread edge

UCLA by 14

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentUSC -10.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowUSC -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now55.5

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 54% (103 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentUSC -10.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 10.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 8.9; 53.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU @ MSST 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	41–14	W	O54
Close	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-12	24–20	L	U52
Close	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-7	31–14	W	U53
Loose	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	38–10	W	U59
Loose	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5
Loose	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & spread	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Loose	TEX @ TCU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & total	-12.5	29–26	L	U56.25
Loose	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Loose	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Loose	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & rest	-8	63–31	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-1	2-4
UCLA WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	1-0

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OOOUU	4-3	57%	6-1
UCLA UOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 1386 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
UCLA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

USC

No more games this season.

UCLA

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USC 54–34 UCLA (7 tied) USC leads · 95 games since 1929 · USC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	UCLA 10 @ USC 29	USC -21.5	UCLA W
Nov 23 2024	USC 19 @ UCLA 13	USC -4.5	USC W
Nov 18 2023	UCLA 38 @ USC 20	USC -5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+17.6 →+14.0▼ 3.6#18

UCLA+2.1 →+15.3▲ 13.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

USC

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#16

Offense

◀ USC better

#40

#82

Defense

UCLA better ▶

#13

0.0 #69

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

+1.7 #3

69 plays #42

Pace

◀ USC faster

67 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #26	16.2 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #21	4.59 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #10	−0.15 #2	Even
Success rate	52% #7	34% #9	Even

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #34	25.1 #78	UCLA
Yards / play	6.62 #22	5.95 #105	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.18 #57	+0.13 #91	UCLA
Success rate	46% #48	40% #55	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USC scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.9 #76	14.6 #6	20.4 #24	8.6 #19	7.4 #58	16.0 #33
UCLA allowed	3.3 #35	4.5 #24	7.8 #19	4.0 #49	4.3 #25	8.3 #29

UCLA scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	5.7 #84	9.0 #72	14.7 #76	5.8 #80	15.0 #1	20.8 #5
USC allowed	3.9 #44	5.9 #46	9.7 #46	6.9 #104	8.6 #120	15.4 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.