UCLA @ Michigan: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Michigan · Conference game

UCLA

6-0 · Power #16

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Michigan

4-2 · Power #34

projected

UCLA 55%

45% MICH

Spread

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Total

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model 48

Model line

UCLA -2

UCLA 55% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	—
MICH WWLLL	2-4	33%	2-3	—

Venue/role: UCLA away; MICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA UOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0
MICH UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
MICH	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UCLA

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs USC	L10–29WU

Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ OSU	L9–27LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.1 →+15.3▲ 13.2#15

MICH+14.6 →+8.8▼ 5.8#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UCLA

Longer bar = better

MICH

#40

Offense

◀ UCLA better

#97

#13

Defense

Even

#10

+1.7 #3

Turnovers

◀ UCLA better

−0.5 #103

67 plays #58

Pace

◀ UCLA faster

58 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	UCLA off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #34	16.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.62 #22	4.11 #1	MICH
PPA / play	+0.18 #57	−0.10 #6	MICH
Success rate	46% #48	35% #14	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: UCLA defense

	MICH off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #106	16.2 #20	UCLA
Yards / play	5.43 #105	4.59 #20	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	−0.15 #2	UCLA
Success rate	42% #82	34% #9	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	5.7 #84	9.0 #72	14.7 #75	5.8 #79	15.0 #1	20.8 #5
MICH allowed	4.5 #62	1.7 #1	6.2 #9	1.7 #8	8.3 #117	10.0 #51

MICH scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #112	6.2 #108	9.7 #120	7.5 #36	5.5 #110	13.0 #75
UCLA allowed	3.3 #35	4.5 #24	7.8 #19	4.0 #48	4.3 #24	8.3 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.