Northwestern @ Minnesota: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Northwestern

5-1 · Power #30

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Minnesota

4-2 · Power #65

projected

NU 70%

30% MINN

Spread

—

Total

—

model 47.5

Model line

NU -7.5

NU 70% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWWLL	4-2	67%	1-1	—
MINN LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: NU away; MINN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1
MINN UUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
MINN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs ILL	L13–20PU

Minnesota

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ WIS	W17–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NU 2–0 MINN NU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Minnesota 35 @ Northwestern 38	NU -4.5	MINN W
Sep 23 2023	Minnesota 34 @ Northwestern 37	MINN -12	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU+2.4 →+10.0▲ 7.6#30

MINN+1.1 →+0.5▼ 0.6#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

MINN

#21

Offense

◀ NU better

#96

#64

Defense

Even

#54

+1.2 #7

Turnovers

◀ NU better

+0.2 #60

63 plays #102

Pace

Even

63 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #41	21.8 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #19	5.01 #42	NU
PPA / play	+0.33 #9	+0.05 #51	NU
Success rate	50% #13	41% #70	NU

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	MINN off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #73	17.0 #25	NU
Yards / play	5.43 #107	5.29 #61	NU
PPA / play	+0.03 #115	+0.08 #67	NU
Success rate	41% #90	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NU scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.8 #59	9.2 #67	16.0 #61	8.7 #18	8.8 #34	17.5 #21
MINN allowed	4.0 #46	9.2 #105	13.2 #85	1.7 #7	7.0 #89	8.7 #32

MINN scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	8.0 #35	7.3 #95	15.3 #68	6.7 #55	6.8 #70	13.5 #66
NU allowed	1.5 #5	7.3 #72	8.8 #32	2.7 #24	5.5 #50	8.2 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.