Vanderbilt @ Florida: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Florida · Conference game

Vanderbilt

3-4 · Power #60

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Florida

5-2 · Power #17

projected

VAN 12%

88% FLA

Spread

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Total

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model 57.5

Model line

FLA -16.5

FLA 88% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWWLL	3-4	43%	2-0	—
FLA WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: VAN away; FLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OUOOO	5-2	71%	3-4
FLA OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Vanderbilt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs TENN	W45–24WO

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ FSU	W40–21WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 0–1 FLA FLA leads · 1 game since 2023 · FLA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Vanderbilt 14 @ Florida 38	FLA -18.5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+13.0 →+2.0▼ 11.0#60

FLA+10.9 →+14.2▲ 3.3#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

VAN

Longer bar = better

FLA

#99

Offense

FLA better ▶

#32

#100

Defense

Even

#95

−0.7 #121

Turnovers

FLA better ▶

+0.3 #55

64 plays #91

Pace

FLA faster ▶

71 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #101	28.3 #109	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #97	5.62 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	+0.11 #81	Even
Success rate	40% #101	44% #102	Even

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #11	29.7 #115	FLA
Yards / play	6.31 #46	5.64 #89	FLA
PPA / play	+0.25 #24	+0.14 #98	FLA
Success rate	46% #45	44% #99	FLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.6 #86	4.4 #130	10.0 #116	7.7 #32	5.9 #96	13.6 #65
FLA allowed	3.7 #43	9.7 #111	13.4 #90	7.6 #112	7.3 #97	14.9 #118

FLA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.7 #42	13.7 #11	21.4 #17	8.4 #22	9.7 #18	18.1 #16
VAN allowed	6.9 #112	12.3 #132	19.1 #129	5.0 #72	5.6 #53	10.6 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.