Florida @ Florida State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Florida State

Florida

5-2 · Power #17

projected

Fri 3:30 PM ET

Florida State

3-4 · Power #40

projected

FLA 63%

37% FSU

Spread

FLA -4.5

Total

52.5

model 62.5

Spread edge

FLA by 1

no lean

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentFLA -4.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowFLA -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (178 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentFLA -4.5

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 4.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 4.1; 56 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	31–17	W	U54.5
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	19–13	W	U52.5
Very close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	LSU @ FLA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–27	L	U56.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	LOU @ NCSU 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	28–31	L	O56.5
Very close	GT @ NCSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	36–48	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-1	3-3
FSU WLWLW	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	3-1-1

Venue/role: FLA away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2
FSU OUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4

In 1565 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
FSU	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida

No more games this season.

Florida State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

FLA 39–29 FSU (2 tied) FLA leads · 70 games since 1904 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Florida State 21 @ Florida 40	FSU -1.5	FLA W
Nov 30 2024	Florida 31 @ Florida State 11	FLA -17.5	FLA W
Nov 25 2023	Florida State 24 @ Florida 15	FSU -6.5	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+10.9 →+14.2▲ 3.3#17

FSU+11.5 →+7.3▼ 4.2#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

FLA

Longer bar = better

FSU

#32

Offense

◀ FLA better

#49

#95

Defense

◀ FLA better

#116

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

◀ FLA better

−0.6 #114

71 plays #18

Pace

◀ FLA faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #11	27.9 #107	FLA
Yards / play	6.31 #46	6.34 #122	FLA
PPA / play	+0.25 #24	+0.25 #126	FLA
Success rate	46% #45	44% #109	FLA

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #56	28.3 #109	FSU
Yards / play	6.42 #39	5.62 #87	FSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	+0.11 #81	FSU
Success rate	44% #61	44% #102	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	7.7 #42	13.7 #11	21.4 #17	8.4 #22	9.7 #18	18.1 #16
FSU allowed	3.4 #39	9.7 #111	13.1 #83	4.4 #58	8.1 #112	12.6 #89

FSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.4 #44	9.3 #63	16.7 #54	7.4 #37	6.4 #81	13.9 #61
FLA allowed	3.7 #43	9.7 #111	13.4 #90	7.6 #112	7.3 #97	14.9 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.