Louisville @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F8 mphgusts 14Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisville

2-2 · Power #23

final

Final

NC State

2-2 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -5.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 31–26 NCSU

✗ LOU (65%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -7.5

CloseLOU -5.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -7.5

2 → NCSU

CloseLOU -5.5

2 pts toward NC State

Total

Open59.5

▼ 3

Close56.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -7.5 · closed LOU -5.5 · moved 2 toward NCSUmodel LOU -4.5

model LOU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 49% (171 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -7.5

CloseLOU -5.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 5.5-point road favorite at NCSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 31–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 5.6; 61.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU @ OKST 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	32–39	L	O54
Very close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Very close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–20	L	U54
Very close	TA&M @ ARK 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	45–42	L	O57.5
Very close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & rest	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–24	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WWWL	3-1	75%	—	2-1
NCSU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; NCSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
NCSU UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 624 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 1–0 NCSU LOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2023	Louisville 13 @ NC State 10	LOU -3.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.5 →+10.5▲ 1.0#28

NCSU+6.0 →+3.9▼ 2.1#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LOU

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#19

Offense

◀ LOU better

#43

#95

Defense

Even

#93

+1.5 #9

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.5 #97

67 plays #63

Pace

NCSU faster ▶

70 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #17	25.0 #87	LOU
Yards / play	7.26 #12	5.56 #85	LOU
PPA / play	+0.33 #18	+0.18 #109	LOU
Success rate	49% #30	43% #91	LOU

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #31	28.8 #111	NCSU
Yards / play	6.50 #42	5.77 #97	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #55	+0.12 #89	NCSU
Success rate	47% #43	42% #83	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	10.3 #27	7.8 #87	18.0 #51	13.0 #4	10.3 #25	23.3 #6
NCSU allowed	2.5 #24	6.0 #48	8.5 #29	5.3 #80	11.3 #132	16.5 #125

NCSU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	12.3 #10	11.3 #45	23.5 #14	8.0 #42	6.8 #78	14.8 #61
LOU allowed	3.3 #38	12.0 #130	15.3 #106	6.8 #99	6.8 #86	13.5 #102

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.