App State @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at NC State

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

App State

3-0 · Power #94

final

Final

NC State

1-2 · Power #61

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -12.5

✓ APP W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 21–34 NCSU

✓ NCSU (82%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNCSU -14

CloseNCSU -12.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -14

1.5 → APP

CloseNCSU -12.5

1.5 pts toward App State

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -14 · closed NCSU -12.5 · moved 1.5 toward APPmodel NCSU -13.5

model NCSU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 57% (119 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (361 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNCSU -14

CloseNCSU -12.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 12.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 41–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 11.7; 54.1 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MSST vs TOL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	17–41	L	O57.5
Close	BOIS vs UNM 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	41–25	W	O58.5
Close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Close	SYR vs CONN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-10	31–24	L	O53.5
Close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	33–17	W	U54.5
Close	SC vs JXST 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-15.5	38–28	L	O55
Close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	35–21	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
NCSU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
NCSU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 614 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NCSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−10.7 →−5.3▲ 5.4#89

NCSU+6.0 →+4.6▼ 1.4#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

APP

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#55

Offense

Even

#56

#44

Defense

◀ APP better

#96

+1.0 #29

Turnovers

◀ APP better

−0.3 #90

73 plays #17

Pace

◀ APP faster

66 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #48	23.0 #73	APP
Yards / play	6.71 #37	5.33 #78	APP
PPA / play	+0.21 #58	+0.22 #119	APP
Success rate	43% #77	45% #114	APP

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #45	16.0 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.77 #34	4.76 #47	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #72	+0.01 #50	APP
Success rate	44% #72	38% #48	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

APP scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	4.3 #99	16.0 #10	20.3 #40	7.7 #53	8.0 #54	15.7 #46
NCSU allowed	3.3 #46	4.7 #36	8.0 #34	4.7 #73	10.3 #125	15.0 #112

NCSU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	11.7 #16	10.3 #60	22.0 #29	9.7 #20	5.7 #95	15.3 #54
APP allowed	2.3 #27	3.3 #22	5.7 #13	3.3 #42	7.0 #93	10.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.