Charlotte @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 9:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at App State

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphWet0.2 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Charlotte

0-2 · Power #135

final

Final

App State

2-0 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

APP -16.5

✓ CLT W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 19–36 APP

✓ APP (88%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAPP -19.5

CloseAPP -16.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -19.5

3 → CLT

CloseAPP -16.5

3 pts toward Charlotte

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -19.5 · closed APP -16.5 · moved 3 toward CLTmodel APP -15.5

model APP -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 49% (140 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (240 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAPP -19.5

CloseAPP -16.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like APP as a 16.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 26–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 15.8; 55.1 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs MASS 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	38–23	L	O51
Close	MEM vs CLT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	33–28	L	O56
Close	TXST vs NEV 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	35–24	L	U59.5
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25
Close	UVA vs WSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	22–20	L	U56.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	JMU vs GASO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest	-15	35–10	W	U54.5
Close	ECU vs TLSA 2025 · Week 8 · close	-16.5	41–27	L	O54.5
Close	JMU vs GAST 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-14.5	38–7	W	U53.5
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	20–17	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
APP WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; APP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT OU	1-1	50%	0-2
APP OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	0-10 0%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
APP	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLT 0–1 APP APP leads · 1 game since 2023 · APP has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 29 2025	App State 34 @ Charlotte 11	APP -19.5	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−18.1 →−17.0▲ 1.1#131

APP−10.7 →−6.8▲ 3.9#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CLT

Longer bar = better

APP

#79

Offense

APP better ▶

#36

#135

Defense

APP better ▶

#69

−1.0 #123

Turnovers

APP better ▶

+1.5 #13

68 plays #59

Pace

APP faster ▶

72 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Even matchup

	CLT off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #100	13.5 #25	APP
Yards / play	6.37 #57	5.05 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #86	+0.13 #97	Even
Success rate	44% #71	42% #91	Even

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #28	42.0 #134	APP
Yards / play	7.24 #20	6.78 #130	APP
PPA / play	+0.30 #32	+0.38 #137	APP
Success rate	45% #63	55% #138	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	6.5	5.0	11.5
APP allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	5.0	3.5	8.5

APP scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.0	19.0	24.0	8.5	8.5	17.0
CLT allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	7.0	10.5	17.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.