James Madison @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at San Diego State

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

James Madison

2-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Final

San Diego State

1-1 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

SDSU -3

✓ JMU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 24–25 SDSU

✗ SDSU (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSDSU -1.5

CloseSDSU -3

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -1.5

1.5 → SDSU

CloseSDSU -3

1.5 pts toward San Diego State

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -1.5 · closed SDSU -3 · moved 1.5 toward SDSUmodel JMU -4

model JMU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (283 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (311 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSDSU -1.5

CloseSDSU -3

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 3-point home favorite against JMU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 26–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 46.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 3.6; 56.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NCSU vs UVA 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	35–31	W	O52.75
Close	KSU vs UCF 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-6	34–20	W	O48.5
Close	BAY vs BYU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–34	L	O46.5
Loose	VT vs RUTG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.25	23–26	L	O44.75
Loose	NU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–26	L	O37.5
Loose	UCLA vs MD 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	20–17	L	U52.5
Loose	JMU vs ODU 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-3	63–27	W	O47.5
Loose	ODU vs ECU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.5	14–20	L	U54
Loose	VT vs VAN 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2	20–44	L	O45.5
Loose	TOL vs WKU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8	45–21	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WW	2-0	100%	—	—
SDSU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
SDSU OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
SDSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.8 →+3.5▼ 2.3#54

SDSU−1.2 →−4.0▼ 2.8#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

JMU

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#29

Offense

◀ JMU better

#113

Defense

◀ JMU better

#80

+0.5 #53

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

0.0 #71

56 plays #133

Pace

SDSU faster ▶

60 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	53.5 #3	24.0 #84	JMU
Yards / play	7.92 #8	5.00 #60	JMU
PPA / play	+0.29 #36	+0.08 #75	JMU
Success rate	44% #67	43% #102	JMU

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	SDSU off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #74	8.0 #7	JMU
Yards / play	4.90 #125	3.98 #13	JMU
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	−0.21 #4	JMU
Success rate	35% #132	31% #12	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 125 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	14.0	15.5	29.5	13.5	10.5	24.0
SDSU allowed	3.0	0.0	3.0	7.0	14.0	21.0

SDSU scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.5	11.0	14.5	7.0	10.0	17.0
JMU allowed	1.5	3.0	4.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.