Ohio @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at South Alabama

Weather at kickoff88°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ohio

1-1 · Power #96

final

Final

South Alabama

1-1 · Power #101

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -7

✓ OHIO W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 24–31 USA

✓ USA (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSA -3.5

CloseUSA -7

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -3.5

3.5 → USA

CloseUSA -7

3.5 pts toward South Alabama

Total

Open53.5

▼ 4

Close49.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -3.5 · closed USA -7 · moved 3.5 toward USAmodel USA -6

model USA -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (205 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSA -3.5

CloseUSA -7

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 7-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 41–36; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 6.2; 64 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MOST vs UTEP 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–24	W	O48.5
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Close	TLSA vs UAB 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	24–31	L	U56.5
Close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Close	TROY vs ARST 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	10–23	L	U52.5
Close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Close	MRSH vs APP 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	52–37	W	O56.5
Close	AFA vs HAW 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	35–44	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
USA WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: OHIO away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OO	2-0	100%	1-1
USA UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 692 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
USA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OHIO 1–0 USA OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	South Alabama 20 @ Ohio 27	USA -1.5	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−5.6 →−10.7▼ 5.1#111

USA−9.6 →−8.0▲ 1.6#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

OHIO

Longer bar = better

USA

#108

Offense

USA better ▶

#80

#132

Defense

USA better ▶

#93

0.0 #72

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+1.0 #36

66 plays #80

Pace

USA faster ▶

79 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #93	21.0 #73	Even
Yards / play	4.31 #131	7.44 #133	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #100	+0.17 #114	Even
Success rate	38% #109	37% #53	USA

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #70	38.0 #132	USA
Yards / play	5.53 #98	6.64 #127	USA
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.36 #136	USA
Success rate	42% #82	50% #134	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	0.0	9.0	9.0
USA allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	7.0	3.5	10.5

USA scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	14.5	1.5	16.0	8.5	7.0	15.5
OHIO allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	10.5	10.5	21.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.