Nevada @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Middle Tennessee

Weather at kickoff95°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nevada

1-1 · Power #109

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-1 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEV -3.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 26–24 MTSU

✗ NEV (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEV -6.5

CloseNEV -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEV -6.5

3 → MTSU

CloseNEV -3.5

3 pts toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEV -6.5 · closed NEV -3.5 · moved 3 toward MTSUmodel MTSU -0.5

model MTSU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (233 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (235 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEV -6.5

CloseNEV -3.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 3.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 27–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 3.7; 49.5 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Close	FRES @ HAW 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–21	L	U47.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Close	WKU @ JXST 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-1.5	34–37	L	O56.5
Close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	37–42	L	O47
Close	LIB @ BGSU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	13–23	L	U51.5
Close	LT @ KENN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-4.5	7–35	L	U46.5
Close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–7	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WL	1-1	50%	—	—
MTSU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NEV away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OU	1-1	50%	1-1
MTSU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MTSU	3-7 30%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEV 0–1 MTSU MTSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · MTSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2025	Middle Tennessee 14 @ Nevada 13	NEV -9.5	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−13.2 →−11.6▲ 1.6#114

MTSU−15.1 →−14.7▲ 0.4#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NEV

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#75

Offense

MTSU better ▶

#55

#70

Defense

◀ NEV better

#85

−1.5 #131

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+0.5 #64

65 plays #88

Pace

◀ NEV faster

59 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #86	21.0 #72	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #50	5.45 #90	NEV
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.10 #89	Even
Success rate	44% #73	42% #90	Even

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #66	17.0 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.39 #53	4.81 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #44	+0.05 #70	MTSU
Success rate	46% #57	43% #102	MTSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0	3.5	10.5	7.0	10.5	17.5
MTSU allowed	3.5	7.0	10.5	3.5	7.0	10.5

MTSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	10.5	6.5	17.0	5.0	10.0	15.0
NEV allowed	5.0	7.0	12.0	0.0	5.0	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.