Air Force @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Air Force

1-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

1-2 · Power #109

final

Closing spread

AFA -4.5

✓ NEV W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

AFA 27–24 NEV

✓ AFA (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -4.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -4.5

no move

CloseAFA -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -4.5 · unchangedmodel NEV -1

model NEV -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (165 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -4.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 4.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: AFA won 36–33; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 3.6; 47.1 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–7	W	U49
Close	LIB @ BGSU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	13–23	L	U51.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Close	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5
Close	KENN @ FIU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	45–26	W	O48.5
Close	LIB @ SHSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	18–20	L	U47.5
Close	LT @ KENN 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	7–35	L	U46.5
Close	CONN @ USM 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	48–20	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
NEV WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: AFA away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA UO	1-1	50%	1-1
NEV OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 750 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-6 40%
NEV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AFA 1–0 NEV AFA leads · 1 game since 2023 · AFA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Air Force 22 @ Nevada 19	NEV -2.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−15.2 →−10.8▲ 4.4#113

NEV−13.2 →−12.6▲ 0.6#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

AFA

Longer bar = better

NEV

#46

Offense

◀ AFA better

#91

#30

Defense

◀ AFA better

#61

+1.0 #26

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

−2.0 #138

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ AFA faster

62 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Even matchup

	AFA off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #57	20.3 #49	Even
Yards / play	5.81 #81	4.84 #46	NEV
PPA / play	+0.29 #28	+0.08 #75	AFA
Success rate	51% #18	41% #74	AFA

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	NEV off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #91	19.0 #42	AFA
Yards / play	5.96 #73	4.67 #37	AFA
PPA / play	+0.06 #105	−0.05 #24	AFA
Success rate	41% #94	33% #15	AFA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.5	13.0	16.5	3.5	13.0	16.5
NEV allowed	5.7 #96	5.7 #43	11.3 #67	2.3 #28	6.7 #84	9.0 #51

NEV scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	7.0 #56	3.3 #133	10.3 #109	7.0 #56	8.0 #54	15.0 #56
AFA allowed	3.5	10.5	14.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.