UNLV @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Akron

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

1-2 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

Akron

1-2 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

UNLV -13.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 31–18 AKR

✓ UNLV (82%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -14

CloseUNLV -13.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -14

0.5 → AKR

CloseUNLV -13.5

0.5 pts toward Akron

Total

Open49.5

▲ 3

Close52.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -14 · closed UNLV -13.5 · moved 0.5 toward AKRmodel UNLV -10

model UNLV -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 44% (90 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -14

CloseUNLV -13.5

Total49.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 13.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 11.7; 51.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA @ TEM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-14	49–34	W	O56
Close	M-OH @ AKR 2025 · Week 7 · close	-11.5	20–7	W	U47.5
Close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-11	55–7	W	O51
Loose	BUFF @ MASS 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-16.5	28–21	L	O47.5
Loose	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · loose	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Loose	ARST @ USM 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar total	-7	44–28	W	O56.5
Loose	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Loose	OHIO @ BALL 2025 · Week 6 · loose	-14	14–20	L	U52.5
Loose	LIB @ MTSU 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-12.5	37–17	W	U55
Loose	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar team ratings	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LWL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-2
AKR WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
AKR OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
AKR	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−0.6 →−4.5▼ 3.9#84

AKR−15.6 →−17.4▼ 1.8#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNLV

Longer bar = better

AKR

#123

Offense

AKR better ▶

#108

#98

Defense

Even

#105

−0.7 #113

Turnovers

AKR better ▶

−0.3 #96

71 plays #30

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

67 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #131	29.7 #115	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #108	6.34 #118	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #126	+0.17 #110	Even
Success rate	36% #125	40% #75	AKR

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #112	25.7 #95	Even
Yards / play	5.22 #113	5.69 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #121	+0.16 #107	Even
Success rate	43% #84	41% #86	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	2.3 #116	8.0 #84	10.3 #112	3.3 #112	2.3 #127	5.7 #131
AKR allowed	6.7 #104	12.7 #126	19.3 #125	3.3 #43	7.0 #89	10.3 #71

AKR scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	2.3 #116	5.7 #107	8.0 #125	3.3 #112	11.3 #15	14.7 #64
UNLV allowed	4.3 #64	5.7 #48	10.0 #55	11.3 #132	4.3 #42	15.7 #111

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.