California @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UNLV

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

California

2-2 · Power #85

final

Final

UNLV

2-2 · Power #84

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -1.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 25–26 UNLV

✓ UNLV (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -1.5

CloseUNLV -1.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -1.5

no move

CloseUNLV -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -1.5 · unchangedmodel UNLV -2.5

model UNLV -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (216 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -1.5

CloseUNLV -1.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 1.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 39–31; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 2.3; 52.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	44–19	W	O53.5
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–24	L	U53.75
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	14–41	L	O46.5
Very close	TROY vs WKU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	27–24	L	U57
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	NU vs PUR 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	19–0	W	U47
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	CIN vs BAY 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	29–32	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-2
UNLV LWLW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-2

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2
UNLV UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 793 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
UNLV	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAL 0–1 UNLV UNLV leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 18 2024	California 13 @ UNLV 24	UNLV -3.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL−0.3 →−1.7▼ 1.4#73

UNLV−0.6 →−2.8▼ 2.2#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CAL

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#108

Offense

Even

#101

#67

Defense

Even

#75

0.0 #75

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+0.3 #61

69 plays #49

Pace

Even

69 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	CAL off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #92	21.8 #61	UNLV
Yards / play	5.51 #102	5.58 #86	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #123	+0.08 #75	UNLV
Success rate	39% #113	41% #79	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	UNLV off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #114	23.5 #75	CAL
Yards / play	5.88 #77	5.40 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	+0.05 #64	CAL
Success rate	39% #112	38% #50	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	10.8 #22	6.8 #104	17.5 #61	6.0 #71	2.5 #128	8.5 #120
UNLV allowed	5.0 #81	5.0 #34	10.0 #47	8.5 #127	3.3 #16	11.8 #86

UNLV scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	3.5 #109	7.8 #87	11.3 #105	6.8 #63	3.5 #117	10.3 #102
CAL allowed	2.5 #24	10.8 #121	13.3 #92	3.3 #40	7.0 #92	10.3 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.