Boston College @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Boston College

2-2 · Power #79

final

Final

SMU

3-1 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -21.5

✓ BC W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 14–36 SMU

✓ SMU (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSMU -21

CloseSMU -21.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -21

0.5 → SMU

CloseSMU -21.5

0.5 pts toward SMU

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -21 · closed SMU -21.5 · moved 0.5 toward SMUmodel SMU -19.5

model SMU -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSMU -21

CloseSMU -21.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 21.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 25–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.8 against an average line of 21; 62.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 8 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Very close	SMU vs STAN 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-19.5	34–10	W	U55.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-25.5	38–24	L	O54.5
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Very close	USC vs UCLA 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	29–10	L	U59
Very close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Very close	JMU vs APP 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-21	58–10	W	O53.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-20	31–24	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC LWLW	2-2	50%	0-1	1-1
SMU PWLL	1-2-1	33%	1-1	1-1-1

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2
SMU UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SMU	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BC 1–2 SMU SMU leads · 3 games since 2023 · SMU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	SMU 45 @ Boston College 13	SMU -10.5	SMU W
Nov 16 2024	Boston College 28 @ SMU 38	SMU -19.5	BC W
Dec 28 2023	SMU 14 @ Boston College 23	SMU -13.5	BC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−3.2 →−4.8▼ 1.6#85

SMU+9.9 →+9.7▼ 0.2#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

SMU

#116

Offense

SMU better ▶

#21

#58

Defense

Even

#57

+0.3 #57

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−1.3 #130

64 plays #96

Pace

SMU faster ▶

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	BC off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #122	24.8 #83	SMU
Yards / play	5.53 #100	4.95 #46	SMU
PPA / play	−0.05 #127	+0.04 #62	SMU
Success rate	38% #116	36% #38	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #35	23.0 #70	SMU
Yards / play	7.81 #5	5.01 #50	SMU
PPA / play	+0.26 #36	0.00 #43	Even
Success rate	53% #9	39% #67	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BC scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.5 #53	2.3 #138	9.8 #119	4.5 #101	5.5 #101	10.0 #107
SMU allowed	7.8 #116	0.8 #1	8.5 #34	5.3 #78	11.0 #131	16.3 #123

SMU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	7.0 #57	15.5 #10	22.5 #24	5.3 #85	9.3 #34	14.5 #63
BC allowed	0.8 #4	6.8 #57	7.5 #24	6.0 #88	9.5 #123	15.5 #119

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.