Missouri State @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at SMU

Weather at kickoff88°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Missouri State

1-2 · Power #130

final

Final

SMU

2-1 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -30.5

✓ MOST W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

MOST 12–43 SMU

✓ SMU (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSMU -34.5

CloseSMU -30.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -34.5

4 → MOST

CloseSMU -30.5

4 pts toward Missouri State

Total

Open59.5

▲ 1

Close60.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -34.5 · closed SMU -30.5 · moved 4 toward MOSTmodel SMU -31.5

model SMU -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 29.5–31.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSMU -34.5

CloseSMU -30.5

Total59.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 30.5-point home favorite against MOST, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 34–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 58 points stayed under 60.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.7 against an average line of 28.6; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AUB vs UNM 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-25.5	45–19	W	O58.5
Loose	LIB vs MASS 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & season form	-26.5	49–25	L	O63.5
Loose	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	ARK vs FIU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	44–20	L	O49.5
Loose	ECU vs CLT 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-28	48–22	L	O56.5
Loose	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & rest	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Loose	MICH vs UTEP 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-34.5	52–17	W	O48.5
Loose	MISS vs MSST 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-26	26–14	L	U63.5
Loose	ARIZ vs NIU 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-34.5	42–17	L	O50.5
Loose	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & total	-24	33–7	W	U63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MOST LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2
SMU PWL	1-1-1	50%	1-0	1-0-1

Venue/role: MOST away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MOST UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
SMU UOO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 27. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MOST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SMU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MOST 0–1 SMU SMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2025	SMU 28 @ Missouri State 10	SMU -28.5	MOST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MOST−11.7 →−15.0▼ 3.3#125

SMU+9.9 →+11.2▲ 1.3#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MOST

Longer bar = better

SMU

#65

Offense

SMU better ▶

#18

#117

Defense

SMU better ▶

#75

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

◀ MOST better

−1.3 #131

61 plays #109

Pace

SMU faster ▶

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MOST has the ball

Even matchup

	MOST off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #99	25.0 #89	Even
Yards / play	6.24 #62	5.31 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #48	+0.10 #82	MOST
Success rate	46% #52	38% #53	Even

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	MOST def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #33	31.3 #121	SMU
Yards / play	7.94 #5	5.68 #92	SMU
PPA / play	+0.29 #25	+0.24 #122	SMU
Success rate	53% #10	48% #133	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

MOST scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MOST scored	8.0 #47	6.7 #104	14.7 #83	9.3 #25	0.0 #137	9.3 #111
SMU allowed	7.0 #109	1.0 #4	8.0 #32	7.0 #102	10.0 #124	17.0 #124

SMU scoring against the MOST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	9.3 #34	16.0 #10	25.3 #13	4.7 #96	8.0 #53	12.7 #79
MOST allowed	7.7 #114	4.3 #32	12.0 #72	10.3 #131	9.0 #117	19.3 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.