Wake Forest @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

2-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Louisville

2-1 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

LOU -11.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 23–35 LOU

✗ LOU (80%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -13.5

CloseLOU -11.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -13.5

2 → WAKE

CloseLOU -11.5

2 pts toward Wake Forest

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -13.5 · closed LOU -11.5 · moved 2 toward WAKEmodel LOU -12.5

model LOU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 42% (122 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (242 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -13.5

CloseLOU -11.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as an 11.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 12.2; 58.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & total	-13.5	35–21	W	U57
Very close	UCLA vs PUR 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	52–38	W	O53.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	UCF vs COLO 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-12.5	21–48	L	O60.5
Very close	KU vs WVU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-12.5	24–34	L	O54.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	56–28	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-0
LOU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE OOU	2-1	67%	2-1
LOU OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 4 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+3.0 →+3.3▲ 0.3#53

LOU+9.5 →+12.5▲ 3.0#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WAKE

Longer bar = better

LOU

#48

Offense

LOU better ▶

#12

#103

Defense

Even

#94

0.0 #71

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+2.0 #5

66 plays #72

Pace

◀ WAKE faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #66	28.3 #110	WAKE
Yards / play	6.59 #42	5.55 #93	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.31 #29	+0.10 #87	WAKE
Success rate	46% #54	41% #85	WAKE

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #12	28.3 #109	LOU
Yards / play	7.97 #4	5.20 #71	LOU
PPA / play	+0.43 #11	+0.17 #112	LOU
Success rate	51% #20	46% #118	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	8.0 #50	9.3 #69	17.3 #62	4.0 #107	5.7 #87	9.7 #107
LOU allowed	3.3 #46	9.0 #93	12.3 #82	8.0 #118	8.0 #105	16.0 #113

LOU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	11.3 #24	5.7 #107	17.0 #69	15.3 #3	13.7 #5	29.0 #1
WAKE allowed	4.7 #72	7.7 #78	12.3 #82	3.3 #43	8.3 #107	11.7 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.