Miami @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Fri, Sep 18, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami

2-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Wake Forest

2-0 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

MIA -20.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 37–17 WAKE

✓ MIA (92%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -19.5

CloseMIA -20.5

Total50.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -19.5

1 → MIA

CloseMIA -20.5

1 pt toward Miami

Total

Open50.5

▲ 5

Close55.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -19.5 · closed MIA -20.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -18.5

model MIA -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (301 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -19.5

CloseMIA -20.5

Total50.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like MIA as a 20.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 33–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 53 points stayed under 55.5, as in 3 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 27 against an average line of 21.5; 47 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC @ PUR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	33–17	L	U59.5
Loose	MISS @ WAKE 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20.5	40–6	W	U65.5
Loose	OSU @ MSU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	38–7	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
WAKE LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OO	2-0	100%	2-0
WAKE OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
WAKE	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 10–3 WAKE MIA leads · 13 games since 1928 · MIA has won the last 9 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Wake Forest 14 @ Miami 42	MIA -23.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+21.1 →+23.2▲ 2.1#4

WAKE+3.0 →+3.8▲ 0.8#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MIA

Longer bar = better

WAKE

Offense

◀ MIA better

#33

#32

Defense

◀ MIA better

#99

−1.0 #113

Turnovers

WAKE better ▶

+0.5 #44

70 plays #43

Pace

◀ MIA faster

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	61.0 #2	26.0 #97	MIA
Yards / play	10.04 #1	5.03 #67	MIA
PPA / play	+0.80 #2	+0.14 #106	MIA
Success rate	71% #1	47% #126	MIA

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #41	6.5 #6	MIA
Yards / play	7.13 #30	3.63 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.44 #14	+0.01 #58	WAKE
Success rate	48% #48	36% #51	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 12 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	17.5	21.0	38.5	21.0	1.5	22.5
WAKE allowed	3.5	3.0	6.5	1.5	11.5	13.0

WAKE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	8.5	14.0	22.5	3.0	5.0	8.0
MIA allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.