Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 AM EDTWeek 3 · at Delaware
Closing spread
DEL -4.5
✓ DEL W
Total
56.5
▼ Under · 36 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 24–30 DEL
✓ DEL (64%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDEL -4.5
CloseDEL -4.5
Total58.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDEL -4.5
no move
CloseDEL -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open58.5
▼ 2
Close56.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DEL -4.5 · unchangedmodel DEL -8
model DEL -8
Opened 58.5 · closed 56.5 · moved 2 downmodel 54
model 54
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (228 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenDEL -4.5
CloseDEL -4.5
Total58.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
DEL as a 4.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: DEL won 22–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 56.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 61%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 4.7; 58.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-3 | 30–20 | W | U51.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-6.5 | 59–10 | W | O57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread |
-5 | 3–31 | L | U57.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread |
-3.5 | 33–35 | L | O52 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread |
-6.5 | 17–30 | L | U62.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread |
-4.5 | 52–12 | W | O58.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread |
-5 | 29–38 | L | O54.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total |
-4.5 | 42–25 | W | O55.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest |
-5.5 | 30–34 | L | O60 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread |
-3 | 31–23 | W | O49.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
58.5 → 56.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Coastal Carolina have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | |
| 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CCU−12.9 →−11.3▲ 1.6#112
DEL−14.3 →−6.3▲ 8.0#91
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2
Longer bar = better
#55
Offense
◀ CCU better#71
#66
Defense
DEL better ▶#36
+1.5 #21
Turnovers
◀ CCU better0.0 #88
67 plays #73
Pace
DEL faster ▶71 plays #40
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| CCU off | DEL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 34.5 #53 | 21.0 #74 | CCU |
| Yards / play | 6.65 #43 | 4.19 #32 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.21 #57 | −0.17 #19 | DEL |
| Success rate | 45% #65 | 31% #20 | DEL |
| DEL off | CCU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 34.0 #57 | 19.0 #65 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.28 #59 | 4.87 #58 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.14 #77 | +0.03 #62 | Even |
| Success rate | 41% #92 | 40% #80 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 17 FBS teams
CCU scoring against the DEL defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.5 | 10.5 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 20.5 | |
7.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 |
DEL scoring against the CCU defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.5 | 15.5 | 19.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | |
7.0 | 8.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
72° · 8 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU7d
DEL7d
Even
Tempo
Average 137 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

