UConn @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Southern Miss

Weather at kickoff93°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

UConn

1-1 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-1 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

CONN -3.5

✓ CONN W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 31–28 USM

✓ CONN (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCONN -2.5

CloseCONN -3.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -2.5

1 → CONN

CloseCONN -3.5

1 pt toward UConn

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -2.5 · closed CONN -3.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel CONN -2.5

model CONN -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (233 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (130 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCONN -2.5

CloseCONN -3.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 3.5-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 48–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3.7; 60.7 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–21	P	U50
Close	LT @ DEL 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–25	L	U56.5
Close	KENN @ LIB 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–42	W	O55.5
Close	LT @ UTEP 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–11	W	U48
Close	WKU @ JXST 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	34–37	L	O56.5
Close	DEL @ JXST 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3	25–38	L	O55.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WL	1-1	50%	—	1-0
USM WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN OU	1-1	50%	1-1
USM OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 663 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
USM	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.3 →−7.3▼ 3.0#97

USM−8.2 →−12.5▼ 4.3#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CONN

Longer bar = better

USM

#53

Offense

◀ CONN better

#74

#75

Defense

◀ CONN better

#90

−1.5 #127

Turnovers

USM better ▶

+1.5 #19

63 plays #93

Pace

USM faster ▶

71 plays #35

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #51	23.0 #82	CONN
Yards / play	7.15 #28	5.85 #110	CONN
PPA / play	+0.25 #46	+0.11 #96	CONN
Success rate	42% #88	40% #72	Even

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #84	22.5 #78	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #108	4.56 #49	CONN
PPA / play	+0.17 #67	+0.11 #98	USM
Success rate	50% #37	40% #73	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	14.0	7.0	21.0	10.5	3.5	14.0
USM allowed	10.0	5.0	15.0	8.0	0.0	8.0

USM scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	3.5	11.0	14.5	10.5	3.5	14.0
CONN allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	7.0	7.0	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.