Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 8:50 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Auburn
Closing spread
AUB -32.5
✓ AUB W
Total
56.5
▼ Under · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
USM 9–40 AUB
✓ AUB (99%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenAUB -29.5
CloseAUB -32.5
Total52.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAUB -29.5
3 → AUB
CloseAUB -32.5
3 pts toward Auburn
Total
Open52.5
▲ 4
Close56.5
Up 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AUB -29.5 · closed AUB -32.5 · moved 3 toward AUBmodel AUB -23
model AUB -23
Opened 52.5 · closed 56.5 · moved 4 upmodel 48.5
model 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 31.5–33.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 63% (47 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (306 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenAUB -29.5
CloseAUB -32.5
Total52.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
AUB as a 32.5-point home favorite against USM. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Auburn ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Auburn
3 pts (AUB -29.5 → AUB -32.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 4
52.5 → 56.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Southern Miss has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 USM | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| AUB | 3-7 30% | 3-6-1 33% | 3-7 30% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
USM−8.2 →−8.2–#97
AUB+11.9 →+10.2▼ 1.7#29
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
USMLonger bar = better
AUB#23
Offense
◀ USM better#113
#10
Defense
◀ USM better#56
+4.0 #2
Turnovers
◀ USM better−1.0 #120
84 plays #6
Pace
Even76 plays #16
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When USM has the ball| USM off | AUB def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 49.0 #18 | 16.0 #54 | USM |
| Yards / play | 6.46 #53 | 4.40 #45 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.44 #15 | −0.01 #60 | USM |
| Success rate | 60% #7 | 39% #64 | USM |
When AUB has the ball| AUB off | USM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 17.0 #118 | 3.0 #3 | USM |
| Yards / play | 5.12 #113 | 3.84 #24 | USM |
| PPA / play | −0.04 #122 | −0.30 #8 | USM |
| Success rate | 39% #100 | 17% #3 | USM |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
AUB +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 3 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
USM7d
AUB7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 160 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Southern Miss← vs ALCN · vs CONN →
MIZ @ 
KU
ASU @ 
TA&M
OU @ 
MICH
ODU @ 
VT
APP @ 
ECU
WKU @ 
UGA
ALA @ 
UK
MSST @ 
MINN
ULM @ 
UAB
DEL @ 
VAN