Missouri @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Fri, Sep 11, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kansas

Weather at kickoff81°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Missouri

1-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Kansas

1-0 · Power #46

final

Closing spread

MIZ -4

✓ MIZ W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 29–25 KU

✓ MIZ (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -7

CloseMIZ -4

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -7

3 → KU

CloseMIZ -4

3 pts toward Kansas

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -7 · closed MIZ -4 · moved 3 toward KUmodel MIZ -5.5

model MIZ -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 48% (142 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 69% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -7

CloseMIZ -4

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like MIZ as a 4-point road favorite at KU, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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games

This game: MIZ won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 6 similar games. 59 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 6.

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 4.8; 55.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Close	UGA @ TENN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	44–41	L	O50.5
Loose	OSU @ ND 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	17–14	P	U55.5
Loose	KU @ ILL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	17–23	L	U58.5
Loose	KSU @ TULN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9	34–27	L	O47.5
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
KU W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; KU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ O	1-0	100%	1-0
KU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 716 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
KU	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIZ 1–0 KU MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	Kansas 31 @ Missouri 42	MIZ -6.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+13.4 →+13.2▼ 0.2#19

KU+3.1 →+5.8▲ 2.7#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MIZ

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

Even

#23

#32

Defense

Even

#19

−1.0 #97

Turnovers

KU better ▶

0.0 #69

78 plays #20

Pace

Even

76 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #24	6.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	7.21 #43	2.75 #14	KU
PPA / play	+0.47 #26	−0.25 #30	Even
Success rate	62% #15	14% #9	Even

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #27	14.0 #57	KU
Yards / play	8.07 #27	3.74 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.55 #19	−0.26 #29	Even
Success rate	60% #20	11% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.