UCF @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Pittsburgh

Weather at kickoff74°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

UCF

1-0 · Power #55

final

Final

Pittsburgh

1-0 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -7.5

✓ UCF W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 23–31 PITT

✓ PITT (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -8.5

ClosePITT -7.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -8.5

1 → UCF

ClosePITT -7.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open51.5

▲ 4

Close55.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -8.5 · closed PITT -7.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel PITT -9.5

model PITT -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (210 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (336 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -8.5

ClosePITT -7.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like PITT as a 7.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 12–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 19 points stayed under 55.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1 against an average line of 6.5; 27 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	GT vs COLO 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	13–14	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF W	1-0	100%	—	—
PITT W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF O	1-0	100%	1-0
PITT O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 44 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	6-4 60%
PITT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+0.7 →+3.5▲ 2.8#54

PITT+6.4 →+9.4▲ 3.0#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UCF

Longer bar = better

PITT

#23

Offense

Even

#30

#18

Defense

◀ UCF better

#65

+1.0 #32

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

+1.0 #46

60 plays #102

Pace

PITT faster ▶

75 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	73.0 #2	14.0 #61	UCF
Yards / play	9.33 #5	4.98 #73	UCF
PPA / play	+0.28 #60	+0.09 #90	UCF
Success rate	57% #26	28% #35	Even

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #17	6.0 #23	Even
Yards / play	8.61 #17	3.02 #17	Even
PPA / play	+0.46 #29	−0.31 #23	Even
Success rate	49% #58	14% #10	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.