Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Pittsburgh
Closing spread
PITT -16.5
✓ PITT W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 73 pts
Model before kickoff
M-OH 17–33 PITT
✓ PITT (88%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenPITT -16.5
ClosePITT -16.5
Total50.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPITT -16.5
no move
ClosePITT -16.5
No change since the open
Total
Open50.5
▼ 3
Close47.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PITT -16.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -16.5 matches the line
model PITT -16.5 = line ✓
Opened 50.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 3 downmodel 50
model 50
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 48% (129 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenPITT -16.5
ClosePITT -16.5
Total50.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PITT as a 16.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: PITT won 59–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 90%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 16.6; 46.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-16.75 | 20–9 | L | U44.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & spread |
-16.5 | 38–3 | W | U45.25 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-18.5 | 31–10 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-16.25 | 42–14 | W | O48.25 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-14 | 31–7 | W | U50.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-16.5 | 48–20 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-15.5 | 45–17 | W | O45.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-18.5 | 29–26 | L | O48 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total |
-17.5 | 7–30 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-16 | 23–17 | L | U45.5 |
MD
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MIA
CAL
SDSU
UVA
KU
FRES
STAN
RUTG
BOIS
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FAUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
50.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Miami (OH) have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 567 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 M-OH | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| PITT | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
PITT +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 3 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
M-OH1st game
PITT1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Miami (OH)vs HC →
UNC vs 
TCU
NCSU @ 
SAC @ 
EMU
HAW @ 
NMSU @ 
FSU
MASS @ 
AKR @ 
WAKE
COLO @ 
GT
SJSU @ 
TOL @ 
MSU