Sat, Aug 29, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
TCU -7.5
✓ UNC W
Total
46.5
▼ Under · 25 pts
Model before kickoff
UNC 21–29 TCU
✗ TCU (72%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTCU -6.5
CloseTCU -7.5
Total49.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTCU -6.5
1 → TCU
CloseTCU -7.5
1 pt toward TCU
Total
Open49.5
▼ 3
Close46.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TCU -6.5 · closed TCU -7.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel TCU -10.5
model TCU -10.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 3 downmodel 51
model 51
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Neutral-site favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 41% (49 games)ⓘ
Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (99 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTCU -6.5
CloseTCU -7.5
Total49.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TCU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against UNC, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: UNC won 15–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 71%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Below normal · usually 52%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 7; 53 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-10 | 21–14 | L | U50.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-7.5 | 39–34 | L | O49.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-9 | 38–28 | W | O43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 27–17 | W | U50.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-6 | 20–17 | L | U50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 14 · close · similar total |
-7 | 14–23 | L | U43.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total |
-6.5 | 21–17 | L | U50.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 46–48 | L | O48.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Postseason · close · similar total |
-3 | 27–35 | L | O49 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread |
-6.5 | 13–31 | L | O39 |
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NAVYHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
49.5 → 46.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
North Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UNC | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| TCU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
UNC 0–1 TCU
TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 2025 | TCU 48 @ North Carolina 14 | TCU -3.5 | TCU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
64° · 3 mph
gusts 5 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UNC1st game
TCU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
North Carolinavs ETSU →TCUvs GRAM →
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AKR @ 
WAKE
COLO @ 
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HOU
CCU @ 
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BAY vs 
AUB