Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at West Virginia
Closing spread
WVU -21
✓ CCU W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 55 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 17–37 WVU
✓ WVU (92%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenWVU -17.5
CloseWVU -21
Total58.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWVU -17.5
3.5 → WVU
CloseWVU -21
3.5 pts toward West Virginia
Total
Open58.5
▼ 4
Close54.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WVU -17.5 · closed WVU -21 · moved 3.5 toward WVUmodel WVU -16
model WVU -16
Opened 58.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 4 downmodel 53.5
model 53.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 20–22 since 2023: won 90%, covered 47% (77 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (172 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenWVU -17.5
CloseWVU -21
Total58.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WVU as a 21-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: WVU won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
3 of 933%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 47%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 20.7; 57 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread |
-22.5 | 50–49 | L | O47 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings |
-21.5 | 49–31 | L | O52.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-20.5 | 17–10 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation |
-22 | 27–38 | L | O51.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings |
-18.5 | 47–7 | W | O53.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-21.5 | 23–6 | L | U50 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-21 | 30–9 | P | U50 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings |
-18.5 | 55–3 | W | O51 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-21.5 | 45–17 | W | O48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-19.5 | 30–27 | L | O48 |
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JMUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight West Virginia ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward West Virginia
3.5 pts (WVU -17.5 → WVU -21). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 4
58.5 → 54.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Coastal Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 599 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CCU | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
| WVU | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WVU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 0 mph
gusts 5 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU1st game
WVU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Coastal Carolinavs FOR →West Virginiavs UTM →
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TCU
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ORST @ 
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LIB @ 
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BAY vs 
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BC @ 
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OKST @ 
TLSA
ARST @ 
MEM
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TROY