Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Cincinnati
Closing spread
CIN -7
✓ CIN W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
BC 25–32 CIN
✓ CIN (70%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCIN -9.5
CloseCIN -7
Total54.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -9.5
2.5 → BC
CloseCIN -7
2.5 pts toward Boston College
Total
Open54.5
▼ 3
Close51.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -9.5 · closed CIN -7 · moved 2.5 toward BCmodel CIN -8
model CIN -8
Opened 54.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 3 downmodel 57.5
model 57.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (197 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (219 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCIN -9.5
CloseCIN -7
Total54.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CIN as a 7-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: CIN won 34–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 51.5, as in 2 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 69%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 6.1; 60.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7.5 | 43–28 | W | O48.25 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-6.25 | 37–17 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 27–20 | L | U49.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-4 | 30–34 | L | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-5.5 | 26–45 | L | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-7 | 13–38 | L | U51.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread |
-7.5 | 35–20 | W | O49.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-4 | 35–39 | L | O47 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-5 | 42–21 | W | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread |
-6.5 | 45–13 | W | O46.5 |
APP
ECU
TULN
USA
MINN
PUR
NCSU
WAKE
VT
ODU
MSU
UCLA
OHIO
BGSU
FRES
WVU
UCFHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Boston College ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Boston College
2.5 pts (CIN -9.5 → CIN -7). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
54.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Boston College have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 BC | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| CIN | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CIN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
91° · 7 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BC1st game
CIN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
UNC vs 
TCU
UVA
HAW @ 
STAN
NMSU @ 
FSU
AKR @ 
COLO @ 
GT
MIA @ 
ORST @ 
HOU
CCU @ 
M-OH @ 
PITT