Tulane @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Duke

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulane

0-0 · Power #86

final

Final

Duke

0-0 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -9.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 25–33 DUKE

✓ DUKE (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -8.5

CloseDUKE -9.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -8.5

1 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -9.5

1 pt toward Duke

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -8.5 · closed DUKE -9.5 · moved 1 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -5

model DUKE -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 45% (152 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (284 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -8.5

CloseDUKE -9.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 9.5-point home favorite against TULN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 17–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 8.5; 57.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	UNC vs JMU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11	50–70	L	O48.5
Very close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Very close	PITT vs BC 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	48–7	W	O54.5
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7	26–19	P	U53.5
Very close	UNT vs WSU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	59–10	W	O57.5
Very close	GT vs SYR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6	31–22	W	O51.5
Very close	NCSU vs VT 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-10	21–23	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found