Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Tulsa
Closing spread
OKST -13.5
✓ TLSA W
Total
57.5
▼ Under · 34 pts
Model before kickoff
OKST 30–20 TLSA
✗ OKST (77%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenOKST -11.5
CloseOKST -13.5
Total61.5 → 57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOKST -11.5
2 → OKST
CloseOKST -13.5
2 pts toward Oklahoma State
Total
Open61.5
▼ 4
Close57.5
Down 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OKST -11.5 · closed OKST -13.5 · moved 2 toward OKSTmodel TLSA -1
model TLSA -1
Opened 61.5 · closed 57.5 · moved 4 downmodel 50.5
model 50.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 45% (87 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (275 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenOKST -11.5
CloseOKST -13.5
Total61.5 → 57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
OKST as a 13.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: TLSA won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 82%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
3 of 838%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 10.9; 55.3 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread |
-12.25 | 33–30 | L | O56.25 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread |
-14.5 | 56–14 | W | O58 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close |
-14.5 | 38–17 | W | U56 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar total |
-10 | 35–0 | W | U57 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total |
-9.5 | 50–40 | W | O54 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 11 · loose |
-7.5 | 31–23 | W | P54 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 11 · loose |
-11.5 | 24–21 | L | U52.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings & total |
-6.5 | 27–21 | L | U54.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & team ratings |
-13 | 38–7 | W | P45 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar total |
-9.5 | 30–18 | W | U59.5 |
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MRSH
GASTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Oklahoma State ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Oklahoma State
2 pts (OKST -11.5 → OKST -13.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 4
61.5 → 57.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Oklahoma State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 0-10 0% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
 TLSA | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
OKST 1–1 TLSA
Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · TLSA has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 2025 | Tulsa 19 @ Oklahoma State 12 | OKST -10.5 | TLSA W |
| Sep 14 2024 | Oklahoma State 45 @ Tulsa 10 | OKST -17.5 | OKST W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TLSA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
100° · 6 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
OKST1st game
TLSA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
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