Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Iowa
Closing spread
IOWA -31.5
✓ IOWA W
Total
44.5
▼ Under · 40 pts
Model before kickoff
NIU 5–36 IOWA
✓ IOWA (99%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenIOWA -29.5
CloseIOWA -31.5
Total43.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIOWA -29.5
2 → IOWA
CloseIOWA -31.5
2 pts toward Iowa
Total
Open43.5
▲ 1
Close44.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IOWA -29.5 · closed IOWA -31.5 · moved 2 toward IOWAmodel IOWA -31
model IOWA -31
Opened 43.5 · closed 44.5 · moved 1 upmodel 41
model 41
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 30.5–32.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (46 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (276 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenIOWA -29.5
CloseIOWA -31.5
Total43.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
IOWA as a 31.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: IOWA won 40–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 44.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 54%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 33.9 against an average line of 30; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-33.75 | 68–0 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-27.5 | 63–3 | W | O42.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-35.5 | 47–7 | W | O44.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation |
-28.5 | 52–14 | W | O50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-28.5 | 41–10 | W | O43.25 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-28.5 | 42–10 | W | O45 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread |
-31 | 31–10 | L | U48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-28 | 22–7 | L | U48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-31 | 33–24 | L | O45 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total |
-27.5 | 28–3 | L | U44 |
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M-OHHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Iowa ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Iowa
2 pts (IOWA -29.5 → IOWA -31.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Northern Illinois have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NIU | 2-8 20% | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% |
| IOWA | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
IOWA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
93° · 8 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NIU1st game
IOWA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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