Sat, Aug 29, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Stanford
Closing spread
STAN -4.5
✓ STAN W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 64 pts
Model before kickoff
HAW 22–27 STAN
✓ STAN (65%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSTAN -3
CloseSTAN -4.5
Total50.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSTAN -3
1.5 → STAN
CloseSTAN -4.5
1.5 pts toward Stanford
Total
Open50.5
▼ 2
Close48.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened STAN -3 · closed STAN -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward STANmodel STAN -9
model STAN -9
Opened 50.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 2 downmodel 48.5 matches the line
model 48.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (225 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 62% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenSTAN -3
CloseSTAN -4.5
Total50.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
STAN as a 4.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: STAN won 37–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 61%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 3.6; 43.8 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-4.5 | 3–20 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 23–31 | L | O50 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 48–7 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 42–14 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3.5 | 27–24 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3 | 31–23 | W | O49.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-3.5 | 28–6 | W | U52.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-3 | 20–13 | W | U49 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3 | 30–29 | L | O49.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 19–0 | W | U47 |
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PURHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Stanford ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Stanford
1.5 pts (STAN -3 → STAN -4.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
50.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Hawai'i have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 599 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 HAW | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| STAN | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
HAW 1–1 STAN
Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23 2025 | Stanford 20 @ Hawai'i 23 | HAW -1.5 | HAW W |
| Sep 1 2023 | Stanford 37 @ Hawai'i 24 | STAN -9.5 | STAN W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
STAN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
82° · 11 mph
gusts 13 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
HAW1st game
STAN1st game
Even
Travel
HAW 2,399 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
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