UNLV @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F12 mphgusts 30Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

0-1 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

0-1 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

UNLV -2.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 30–27 HAW

✓ UNLV (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -1.5

CloseUNLV -2.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -1.5

1 → UNLV

CloseUNLV -2.5

1 pt toward UNLV

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -1.5 · closed UNLV -2.5 · moved 1 toward UNLVmodel UNLV -2.5 matches the line

model UNLV -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (246 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (290 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -1.5

CloseUNLV -2.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 2.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 21–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 2.8; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE @ STAN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–24	P	U53
Very close	WVU @ OHIO 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–17	L	U58.5
Very close	USA @ OHIO 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	20–27	L	U55.5
Very close	OKST @ ASU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	VAN @ UNLV 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	37–40	L	O56.75
Very close	TXST @ USA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	45–38	W	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
HAW L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV U	0-1	0%	0-1
HAW O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
HAW	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UNLV 3–0 HAW UNLV leads · 3 games since 2023 · UNLV has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 21 2025	Hawai'i 10 @ UNLV 38	UNLV -2.5	UNLV W
Nov 9 2024	UNLV 29 @ Hawai'i 27	UNLV -12.5	HAW W
Sep 30 2023	Hawai'i 20 @ UNLV 44	UNLV -10.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 116 FBS teams

UNLV

Longer bar = better

HAW

#82

Offense

Even

#85

#93

Defense

Even

#95

+1.0 #39

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−1.0 #79

79 plays #17

Pace

Even

75 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Even matchup

	UNLV off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #76	37.0 #97	UNLV
Yards / play	5.82 #62	6.71 #98	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.02 #86	+0.31 #97	Even
Success rate	33% #102	45% #89	Even

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #64	27.0 #84	HAW
Yards / play	4.29 #98	6.97 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #83	+0.22 #89	Even
Success rate	36% #93	47% #96	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.