Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Nevada
Closing spread
WKU -1.5
✓ NEV W
Total
51.5
▲ Over · 63 pts
Model before kickoff
WKU 24–22 NEV
✗ WKU (54%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenWKU -4.5
CloseWKU -1.5
Total53.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWKU -4.5
3 → NEV
CloseWKU -1.5
3 pts toward Nevada
Total
Open53.5
▼ 2
Close51.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WKU -4.5 · closed WKU -1.5 · moved 3 toward NEVmodel WKU -0.5
model WKU -0.5
Opened 53.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 2 downmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (170 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (124 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenWKU -4.5
CloseWKU -1.5
Total53.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WKU as a 1.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: NEV won 49–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 2.7; 48.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.75 | 55–27 | W | O54 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings |
-1.5 | 19–8 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-5 | 10–0 | W | U48 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 37–42 | L | O47 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-2.5 | 27–34 | L | O51.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-2 | 10–17 | L | U49 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-2.5 | 21–25 | L | U50.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 23–21 | L | U47.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-4.5 | 38–37 | L | O52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings |
-1 | 28–7 | W | U46.5 |
LIB
BUFF
UTEP
WYO
AKR
ORST
FIU
LT
EMU
FRES
HAW
TEM
TLSA
RICE
CLTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Nevada ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Market moved toward Nevada
3 pts (WKU -4.5 → WKU -1.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
53.5 → 51.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Nevada at altitude (+1.3 km)
Western Kentucky climb about 4,101 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Western Kentucky have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 712 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% | 3-7 30% |
 NEV | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
WKU 1–0 NEV
WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 2025 | Nevada 16 @ Western Kentucky 31 | WKU -7.5 | WKU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NEV +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
63° · 16 mph
gusts 27 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
WKU1st game
NEV1st game
Even
Altitude
WKU +4,101 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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