Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at California
Closing spread
UCLA -2.5
✓ UCLA W
Total
53.5
▲ Over · 69 pts
Model before kickoff
UCLA 27–25 CAL
✓ UCLA (56%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCAL -1.5
CloseUCLA -2.5
Total53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCAL -1.5
4 → UCLA
CloseUCLA -2.5
4 pts toward UCLA
Total
Open53.5
no move
Close53.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CAL -1.5 · closed UCLA -2.5 · moved 4 toward UCLAmodel Pick’em
model Pick’em
Opened 53.5 · unchangedmodel 52.5
model 52.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (247 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (180 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCAL -1.5
CloseUCLA -2.5
Total53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UCLA as a 2.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: UCLA won 45–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
7 of 978%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 2.5; 48.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & spread |
-1 | 31–30 | P | O55.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 20–21 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2 | 28–31 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 48–22 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-2.5 | 38–23 | W | O58.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread |
-3 | 30–18 | W | O47 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-4.5 | 31–21 | W | U55 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 17–14 | W | U55.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings |
-5 | 20–9 | W | U49.25 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 19–17 | W | U52.5 |
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MINNHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight UCLA ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward UCLA
4 pts (CAL -1.5 → UCLA -2.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
UCLA have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 634 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
 CAL | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
UCLA 0–1 CAL
CAL leads · 1 game since 2023 · CAL has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 2023 | California 33 @ UCLA 7 | UCLA -9.5 | CAL W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CAL +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
65° · 1 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UCLA1st game
CAL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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