Sat, Aug 29, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Virginia · Conference game
Closing spread
UVA -4
✓ UVA W
Total
50.5
▼ Under · 42 pts
Model before kickoff
NCSU 25–29 UVA
✓ UVA (61%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUVA -3
CloseUVA -4
Total53.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUVA -3
1 → UVA
CloseUVA -4
1 pt toward Virginia
Total
Open53.5
▼ 3
Close50.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UVA -3 · closed UVA -4 · moved 1 toward UVAmodel UVA -4 matches the line
model UVA -4 = line ✓
Opened 53.5 · closed 50.5 · moved 3 downmodel 54.5
model 54.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 50% (209 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 61% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUVA -3
CloseUVA -4
Total53.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UVA as a 4-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: UVA won 34–8; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 4.1; 58.4 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-5 | 24–14 | W | U51 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-6 | 44–31 | W | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-5.5 | 26–31 | L | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-6 | 37–30 | W | O47 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2 | 21–38 | L | O50.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-3 | 28–21 | W | U51 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-5.5 | 24–31 | L | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 34–48 | L | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 14–24 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2 | 20–44 | L | O45.5 |
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VANHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
53.5 → 50.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
NC State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NCSU | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| UVA | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 1-9 10% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
NCSU 2–0 UVA
NCSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NCSU has won the last 2 meetings
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 2025 | Virginia 31 @ NC State 35 | NCSU -2.5 | NCSU W |
| Sep 22 2023 | NC State 24 @ Virginia 21 | NCSU -8.5 | UVA W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UVA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
81° · 4 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NCSU1st game
UVA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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