Fri, Sep 4, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Stanford · Conference game
Closing spread
MIA -24.5
✓ MIA W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
MIA 35–11 STAN
✓ MIA (96%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMIA -21.5
CloseMIA -24.5
Total48.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -21.5
3 → MIA
CloseMIA -24.5
3 pts toward Miami
Total
Open48.5
▼ 2
Close46.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -21.5 · closed MIA -24.5 · moved 3 toward MIAmodel MIA -21.5
model MIA -21.5
Opened 48.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 2 downmodel 45.5
model 45.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (266 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMIA -21.5
CloseMIA -24.5
Total48.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MIA as a 24.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: MIA won 45–6; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 94%
Favorite covered
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 47%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 51%
Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 28 against an average line of 23.3; 57.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-27 | 41–13 | W | O46 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total |
-26 | 56–23 | W | O50 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread |
-24.5 | 31–6 | W | U47.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-24.5 | 37–42 | L | O48 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings |
-21 | 41–16 | W | O53 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total |
-25.5 | 49–0 | W | O46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation |
-23.5 | 38–7 | W | U48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation |
-18.5 | 52–10 | W | O46 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total |
-21.5 | 24–7 | L | U50 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-21 | 59–24 | W | O52 |
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WSUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Miami ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Miami
3 pts (MIA -21.5 → MIA -24.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
48.5 → 46.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Miami have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 515 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
 STAN | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
MIA 2–0 STAN
MIA leads · 2 games since 2025 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 2025 | Stanford 7 @ Miami 42 | MIA -28.5 | MIA W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
STAN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 9 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MIA1st game
STAN6d
Even
Travel
MIA 2,565 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
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