Stanford @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Stanford

1-1 · Power #97

final

Final

Duke

2-0 · Power #43

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -9.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 21–31 DUKE

✓ DUKE (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -10

CloseDUKE -9.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -10

0.5 → STAN

CloseDUKE -9.5

0.5 pts toward Stanford

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -10 · closed DUKE -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward STANmodel DUKE -15

model DUKE -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 47% (161 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDUKE -10

CloseDUKE -9.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 9.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 35–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 8.8; 44.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	BGSU vs ODU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-11	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	PITT vs UVA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	19–24	L	U57.5
Close	ODU vs TROY 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	33–0	W	U53.5
Close	GT vs NCSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-7.5	30–29	L	O51
Close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Close	SDSU vs SJSU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-10	25–3	W	U51.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	UCF vs WVU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	45–13	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WL	1-1	50%	—	0-1
DUKE WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OO	2-0	100%	1-1
DUKE UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
DUKE	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−2.6 →−4.5▼ 1.9#85

DUKE+3.8 →+5.2▲ 1.4#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

STAN

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#80

Offense

◀ STAN better

#101

#122

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#63

+1.0 #27

Turnovers

◀ STAN better

+0.5 #66

69 plays #54

Pace

◀ STAN faster

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #109	15.0 #43	DUKE
Yards / play	5.71 #88	5.16 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #43	−0.03 #49	Even
Success rate	43% #78	41% #85	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: DUKE offense

	DUKE off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #101	36.0 #129	DUKE
Yards / play	5.65 #89	6.13 #118	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.10 #93	+0.24 #128	DUKE
Success rate	36% #121	44% #112	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 61 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	5.0	5.0	10.0	4.5	7.0	11.5
DUKE allowed	5.0	7.0	12.0	1.5	1.5	3.0

DUKE scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	3.5	5.0	8.5
STAN allowed	7.0	10.5	17.5	7.0	11.5	18.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.