West Virginia vs Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · Neutral site

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West Virginia

2-0 · Power #73

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

2-0 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UVA -10.5

✓ WVU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 21–32 UVA

✗ UVA (78%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -8.5

CloseUVA -10.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -8.5

2 → UVA

CloseUVA -10.5

2 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -8.5 · closed UVA -10.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel UVA -12.5

model UVA -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (314 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUVA -8.5

CloseUVA -10.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like UVA as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against WVU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 38–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 65 points went over 51.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 580%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.2 against an average line of 11.4; 48.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & total	-12.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Loose	LOU vs IU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10	21–14	L	U50.5
Loose	ND vs GT 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest	-14	31–13	W	U49.5
Loose	ND vs NAVY 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-14	51–14	W	O50.5
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	34–22	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WVU LW	1-1	50%	—	—
UVA WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: WVU neutral, as underdog; UVA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU OO	2-0	100%	2-0
UVA UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 764 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UVA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU−1.3 →−0.4▲ 0.9#64

UVA+7.4 →+10.8▲ 3.4#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WVU

Longer bar = better

UVA

#37

Offense

UVA better ▶

#22

#77

Defense

UVA better ▶

#16

+1.0 #35

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+2.0 #10

69 plays #52

Pace

◀ WVU faster

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	WVU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #33	5.5 #4	UVA
Yards / play	6.80 #38	3.37 #6	UVA
PPA / play	+0.32 #30	−0.27 #7	UVA
Success rate	48% #45	35% #46	Even

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #22	15.5 #46	UVA
Yards / play	6.76 #41	5.54 #94	UVA
PPA / play	+0.39 #20	+0.04 #69	UVA
Success rate	59% #6	42% #98	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	17.5	8.5	26.0	8.5	7.0	15.5
UVA allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	4.0	0.0	4.0

UVA scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	15.5	7.0	22.5	10.5	13.5	24.0
WVU allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.5	12.0	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.