Colorado @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Northwestern

Weather at kickoff65°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Colorado

2-0 · Power #63

final

Final

Northwestern

1-0 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -3.5

✓ NU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 23–26 NU

✓ NU (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -4.5

CloseNU -3.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -4.5

1 → COLO

CloseNU -3.5

1 pt toward Colorado

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -4.5 · closed NU -3.5 · moved 1 toward COLOmodel NU -0.5

model NU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (337 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNU -4.5

CloseNU -3.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 3.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 41–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 3.1; 56.2 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs COLO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-4	36–20	W	O45.5
Close	MINN vs RUTG 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–28	L	O51.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-3	63–27	W	O47.5
Close	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-5	23–0	W	U47
Close	UVA vs BC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	24–14	W	U52.5
Close	ISU vs BYU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	27–41	L	O49
Close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	BC vs MSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	23–19	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
NU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO UO	1-1	50%	2-0
NU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 617 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NU	6-4 60%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO−0.7 →+2.0▲ 2.7#61

NU+2.4 →−0.5▼ 2.9#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

COLO

Longer bar = better

#61

Offense

NU better ▶

#25

#48

Defense

◀ COLO better

#75

+0.5 #48

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #39

75 plays #17

Pace

◀ COLO faster

55 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #58	18.0 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.94 #73	4.91 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #33	+0.09 #87	COLO
Success rate	43% #81	42% #93	Even

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #56	17.0 #51	Even
Yards / play	9.04 #3	4.89 #59	NU
PPA / play	+0.48 #10	−0.01 #53	NU
Success rate	51% #30	33% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.