Virginia Tech @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Maryland

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

2-0 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

2-0 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

VT -2.5

✓ VT W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 27–26 MD

✓ VT (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVT -1.5

CloseVT -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -1.5

1 → VT

CloseVT -2.5

1 pt toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -1.5 · closed VT -2.5 · moved 1 toward VTmodel MD -2

model MD -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (259 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (309 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVT -1.5

CloseVT -2.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 2.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 35–26; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 3.7; 52.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AUB @ CAL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	14–10	L	U55.5
Close	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Close	ILL @ DUKE 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	45–19	W	O49.25
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	MSST @ MINN 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-1.5	38–13	W	U53.5
Loose	SMU @ FSU 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-3	27–24	P	U52.5
Loose	BYU @ ECU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-6.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Loose	MIA @ FLA 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	41–17	W	O54.5
Loose	UTAH @ BYU 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	21–24	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
MD WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OO	2-0	100%	2-0
MD OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 681 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MD	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+1.5 →+8.5▲ 7.0#34

MD+0.7 →+8.0▲ 7.3#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

Even

#27

#13

Defense

Even

0.0 #85

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+2.0 #11

79 plays #8

Pace

Even

78 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	58.5 #3	7.0 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.55 #48	3.02 #5	MD
PPA / play	+0.46 #12	−0.21 #9	Even
Success rate	53% #20	27% #9	Even

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	50.0 #14	12.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	7.19 #26	3.64 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #31	−0.23 #8	VT
Success rate	50% #35	24% #5	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 101 FBS teams

VT scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	19.0	20.5	39.5	12.0	7.0	19.0
MD allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	3.5	0.0	3.5

MD scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	12.0	13.5	25.5	17.5	7.0	24.5
VT allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	3.5	5.5	9.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.