Maryland @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff76°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Maryland

1-0 · Power #72

▲ winner

Final

UConn

1-0 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

MD -11.5

✓ MD W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 33–23 CONN

✓ MD (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMD -12.5

CloseMD -11.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMD -12.5

1 → CONN

CloseMD -11.5

1 pt toward UConn

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MD -12.5 · closed MD -11.5 · moved 1 toward CONNmodel MD -6.5

model MD -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 48% (63 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (336 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMD -12.5

CloseMD -11.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like MD as an 11.5-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 52 points stayed under 52.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 12.5; 101 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BOIS @ GASO 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-12.5	56–45	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
CONN W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MD away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD O	1-0	100%	1-0
CONN O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CONN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 1–0 CONN MD leads · 1 game since 2023 · MD has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2024	UConn 7 @ Maryland 50	MD -18.5	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+0.7 →+4.4▲ 3.7#48

CONN−4.3 →−3.6▲ 0.7#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

CONN

#36

Offense

Even

#29

Defense

Even

#19

+3.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ MD better

−2.0 #117

78 plays #24

Pace

◀ MD faster

73 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Even matchup

	MD off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	62.0 #11	7.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	8.28 #23	2.90 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #47	−0.29 #25	CONN
Success rate	49% #61	14% #8	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	CONN off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #20	0.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	9.19 #9	1.70 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.46 #28	−0.60 #3	MD
Success rate	49% #59	15% #11	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.