UTSA @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Texas State

Weather at kickoff98°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTSA

1-0 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Texas State

0-1 · Power #58

final

Closing spread

TXST -1.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 32–33 TXST

✗ TXST (52%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -1.5

CloseTXST -1.5

Total64.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA W	1-0	100%	—	—
TXST L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA O	1-0	100%	1-0
TXST O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 44% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
TXST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UTSA 1–2 TXST TXST leads · 3 games since 2023 · TXST has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	Texas State 43 @ UTSA 36	UTSA -4.5	TXST W
Sep 7 2024	UTSA 10 @ Texas State 49	TXST -2.5	TXST W
Sep 9 2023	Texas State 13 @ UTSA 20	UTSA -14	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.4 →−0.1▼ 0.5#67

TXST−1.3 →−4.5▼ 3.2#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TXST

#27

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#100

#62

Defense

◀ UTSA better

#127

+2.0 #22

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−2.0 #128

58 plays #111

Pace

TXST faster ▶

70 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #39	59.0 #136	UTSA
Yards / play	9.09 #10	7.37 #123	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.36 #46	+0.45 #126	UTSA
Success rate	64% #11	50% #121	UTSA

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	TXST off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #130	16.0 #72	UTSA
Yards / play	4.99 #102	5.21 #80	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	−0.24 #31	UTSA
Success rate	43% #79	37% #65	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.