North Texas @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas State

Weather at kickoff84°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Texas

1-1 · Power #54

final

Final

Texas State

0-2 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -3

✓ TXST W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 33–35 TXST

✓ TXST (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -3

CloseTXST -3

Total63.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -3

no move

CloseTXST -3

No change since the open

Total

Open63.5

▼ 1

Close62.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -3 · unchangedmodel UNT -4.5

model UNT -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (275 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -3

CloseTXST -3

Total63.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 3-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 49–35; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 62.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 2.8; 64.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTSA vs TXST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	36–43	L	O64.5
Loose	GASO vs JXST 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	41–34	W	O58.5
Loose	SJSU vs UNM 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2	35–28	W	O58.5
Loose	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-4	42–21	W	U65
Loose	DUKE vs NCSU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	45–33	W	O57.5
Loose	RUTG vs MD 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.5	35–20	W	U56.5
Loose	WAKE vs UL 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	38–41	L	O59.5
Loose	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Loose	CAL vs WSU 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-1.5	42–39	W	O59
Loose	ARIZ vs COLO 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	7–34	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
TXST LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT OU	1-1	50%	1-1
TXST OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 238 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
TXST	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNT 0–1 TXST TXST leads · 1 game since 2023 · TXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 3 2024	North Texas 28 @ Texas State 30	TXST -15.5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT+4.5 →+2.3▼ 2.2#59

TXST−1.3 →−4.1▼ 2.8#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNT

Longer bar = better

TXST

#71

Offense

◀ UNT better

#91

#108

Defense

◀ UNT better

#130

+1.5 #18

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−2.5 #136

67 plays #67

Pace

TXST faster ▶

75 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #76	45.0 #136	UNT
Yards / play	6.05 #72	6.35 #120	UNT
PPA / play	+0.29 #38	+0.32 #133	UNT
Success rate	40% #96	48% #132	UNT

When TXST has the ball

Even matchup

	TXST off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #127	29.0 #114	Even
Yards / play	5.53 #97	5.64 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	+0.14 #106	TXST
Success rate	46% #55	44% #111	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 19 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	6.5	6.5	13.0	12.0	5.0	17.0
TXST allowed	10.5	7.0	17.5	15.5	12.0	27.5

TXST scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	0.0	12.0	12.0	3.0	1.5	4.5
UNT allowed	7.0	6.5	13.5	5.0	10.5	15.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.