UNLV @ North Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 2 · at North Texas

Weather at kickoff103°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

UNLV

1-1 · Power #84

final

Final

North Texas

0-1 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -3

✓ UNT W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 31–30 UNT

✗ UNLV (54%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -6.5

CloseUNLV -3

Total61.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -6.5

3.5 → UNT

CloseUNLV -3

3.5 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open61.5

▼ 3

Close58.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -6.5 · closed UNLV -3 · moved 3.5 toward UNTmodel UNT -5.5

model UNT -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (201 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUNLV -6.5

CloseUNLV -3

Total61.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like UNLV as a 3-point road favorite at UNT, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 44–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 50 points stayed under 58.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

—

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3; 51 points a game (usually 52.6). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WAKE @ STAN 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-3	27–24	P	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
UNT W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; UNT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV UU	0-2	0%	1-1
UNT O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 48% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
UNT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−0.6 →−0.6–#70

UNT+4.5 →+1.2▼ 3.3#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UNLV

Longer bar = better

UNT

#98

Offense

Even

#99

#78

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#129

+1.0 #48

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−1.0 #110

70 plays #59

Pace

◀ UNLV faster

67 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #96	52.0 #132	UNLV
Yards / play	5.89 #78	7.93 #127	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.04 #101	+0.59 #133	UNLV
Success rate	35% #115	51% #123	Even

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	UNT off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #109	16.5 #73	UNLV
Yards / play	5.48 #91	5.24 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #81	+0.05 #77	Even
Success rate	35% #116	39% #79	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.