Memphis @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Boise State

Weather at kickoff88°F2 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Memphis

2-0 · Power #62

final

Final

Boise State

0-1 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -9.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 23–32 BOIS

✓ BOIS (75%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -6.5

CloseBOIS -9.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -6.5

3 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -9.5

3 pts toward Boise State

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -6.5 · closed BOIS -9.5 · moved 3 toward BOISmodel BOIS -8.5

model BOIS -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 46% (157 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (103 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -6.5

CloseBOIS -9.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 9.5-point home favorite against MEM, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 38–20; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 8.5; 47.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-6	34–23	W	P57
Close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-13	44–7	W	P51
Close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	21–6	W	U52
Close	CAL vs SYR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	25–33	L	O57.5
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Loose	UNC vs MINN 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	31–13	W	U51.5
Loose	UNC vs SYR 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	40–7	W	U59
Loose	BOIS vs UNLV 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-6	38–21	W	U59.5
Loose	TOL vs WKU 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8	45–21	W	O57
Loose	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	7–17	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
BOIS W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: MEM away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UO	1-1	50%	2-0
BOIS O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 641 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BOIS	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MEM 1–0 BOIS MEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · MEM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Boise State 32 @ Memphis 35	MEM -3	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+1.4 →+0.8▼ 0.6#63

BOIS+2.1 →+4.4▲ 2.3#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MEM

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#53

Offense

◀ MEM better

#103

#93

Defense

◀ MEM better

#114

+0.5 #62

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+1.0 #44

62 plays #96

Pace

Even

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #63	34.0 #112	MEM
Yards / play	7.65 #34	7.89 #126	MEM
PPA / play	+0.33 #52	+0.17 #107	MEM
Success rate	48% #63	45% #109	MEM

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #82	22.5 #93	Even
Yards / play	4.22 #122	6.48 #113	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #97	+0.05 #79	Even
Success rate	36% #110	40% #86	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.