Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Memphis
Closing spread
MEM -10.5
✓ MEM W
Total
52.5
▲ Over · 66 pts
Model before kickoff
ARST 21–33 MEM
✓ MEM (79%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMEM -10.5
CloseMEM -10.5
Total55.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMEM -10.5
no move
CloseMEM -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open55.5
▼ 3
Close52.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MEM -10.5 · unchangedmodel MEM -15.5
model MEM -15.5
Opened 55.5 · closed 52.5 · moved 3 downmodel 54.5
model 54.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (148 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMEM -10.5
CloseMEM -10.5
Total55.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MEM as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: MEM won 42–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 75%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 10.8; 55.6 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings |
-13 | 35–33 | L | O48 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings |
-12.5 | 24–21 | L | U47.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-10.5 | 45–38 | L | O57.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-9.5 | 36–20 | W | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & situation |
-9 | 21–17 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-10 | 31–38 | L | O47.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-10 | 25–9 | W | U53 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-10 | 31–24 | L | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 35–20 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings |
-13.5 | 47–6 | W | U53.5 |
TOL
NIU
CAL
ASU
UL
BUFF
WAKE
VAN
SJSU
RICE
CONN
USA
TROY
SYR
MRSH
GAST
SCHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 3
55.5 → 52.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Arkansas State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 665 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARST | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| MEM | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
ARST 0–1 MEM
MEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · MEM has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 2023 | Memphis 37 @ Arkansas State 3 | MEM -21 | MEM W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MEM +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
100° · 5 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARST1st game
MEM7d
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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