Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Texas A&M
Closing spread
TA&M -38.5
✓ TA&M W
Total
53.5
▼ Under · 50 pts
Model before kickoff
MOST 8–46 TA&M
✓ TA&M (100%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTA&M -38.5
CloseTA&M -38.5
Total52.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTA&M -38.5
no move
CloseTA&M -38.5
No change since the open
Total
Open52.5
▲ 1
Close53.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TA&M -38.5 · unchangedmodel TA&M -37
model TA&M -37
Opened 52.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 1 upmodel 54.5
model 54.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 37.5–39.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 57% (49 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTA&M -38.5
CloseTA&M -38.5
Total52.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TA&M as a 38.5-point home favorite against MOST, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: TA&M won 50–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 53.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 53%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 53%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 36.4 against an average line of 38.3; 46.6 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-37.5 | 56–0 | W | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-40.75 | 31–6 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-41 | 49–21 | L | O56 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation |
-36.75 | 38–7 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-37.5 | 42–0 | W | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-38 | 35–7 | L | U57.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-41.75 | 34–0 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-35.25 | 37–10 | L | U59 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-39.5 | 55–0 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-34.5 | 38–0 | W | U52 |
OSU
WMU
MICH
BGSU
UGA
UAB
TEX
SJSU
TTU
OKST
UNLV
PSU
FIU
RICE
SHSU
MIZ
BUFFHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Missouri State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MOST | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| TA&M | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TA&M +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
87° · 8 mph
gusts 13 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MOST1st game
TA&M1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Missouri Statevs LIN →
JXST @ 
NDSU
NMSU @ 
FSU
UTEP @ 
OU
ECU @ 
ALA
LIB @ 
JMU
KENT @ 
SC
TXST @ 
BAY vs 
AUB
USF
TROY