New Mexico State @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sat, Aug 29, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Florida State

Weather at kickoff85°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

0-0 · Power #119

final

Final

Florida State

0-0 · Power #40

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -30.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 11–42 FSU

✓ FSU (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFSU -28.5

CloseFSU -30.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -28.5

2 → FSU

CloseFSU -30.5

2 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -28.5 · closed FSU -30.5 · moved 2 toward FSUmodel FSU -36.5

model FSU -36.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 29.5–31.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 45% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (263 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFSU -28.5

CloseFSU -30.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 30.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 34–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 99%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 39.1 against an average line of 31; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs BUFF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-34.5	38–0	W	U52
Close	FSU vs USM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-31	66–13	W	O54
Close	TULN vs CLT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-31	27–0	L	U52.5
Close	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Close	LOU vs JXST 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-29	49–14	W	O56.5
Close	IU vs KENN 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-35.5	56–9	W	O51.5
Close	NEB vs AKR 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-33.75	68–0	W	O47.5
Close	IU vs CLT 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-28.5	52–14	W	O50.5
Close	VAN vs GAST 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-27.5	70–21	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found