Liberty @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at James Madison

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

0-0 · Power #67

final

Final

James Madison

0-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -6

✓ JMU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 22–30 JMU

✓ JMU (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -6

CloseJMU -6

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -6

no move

CloseJMU -6

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -6 · unchangedmodel JMU -19

model JMU -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (162 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -6

CloseJMU -6

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 6-point home favorite against LIB, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 7.6; 53.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs TOL 2025 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	24–16	L	U48.5
Close	VT vs ODU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	26–45	L	O50.5
Close	ILL vs TOL 2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation	-9	30–28	L	O45.5
Close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Close	TOL vs SJSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation	-9	21–17	L	U56.5
Close	LIB vs ECU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	35–24	W	O54.5
Close	BOIS vs SJSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-8	35–27	P	O57.5
Close	ARMY vs UTSA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	29–24	L	P53
Close	TULN vs NU 2025 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	23–3	W	U46
Close	TTU vs HOU 2023 · Week 5 · close	-8.5	49–28	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found